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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Lincoln edge out Plymouth 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lincoln beat Plymouth 3-2 at LNER stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.81 xG and Plymouth 0.67 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lincoln beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Plymouth outscored their 0.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.13 / defence 0.87 against Plymouth attack 0.71 / defence 1.21, drawn from 48/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Lincoln 64% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 13%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 44%, Plymouth 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lincoln's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Plymouth's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.33 PPG, Plymouth 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.46 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights