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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Lincoln run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Crawley Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lincoln beat Crawley Town 4-1 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.88 xG and Crawley Town 1.02 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Lincoln beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against Crawley Town attack 0.90 / defence 1.54, drawn from 80/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lincoln 57% | Draw 23% | Crawley Town 20%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 42%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lincoln's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Crawley Town's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.46 PPG, Crawley Town 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.49 average — above their attacking norm. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights