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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Lincoln edge out Cardiff 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lincoln beat Cardiff 2-1 at LNER stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.34 xG and Cardiff 0.98 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.17 / defence 0.89 against Cardiff attack 0.97 / defence 0.90, drawn from 66/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lincoln 45% | Draw 28% | Cardiff 27%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 45%, Cardiff 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lincoln's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Cardiff's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.43 PPG, Cardiff 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights