Lincoln 0-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lincoln vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lincoln host Burton Albion at LNER Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 25 April 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Lincoln — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at LNER Stadium, Lincoln have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at LNER Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League One this season, Burton Albion have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lincoln 1.50 PPG, Burton Albion 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lincoln, 2 for Burton Albion and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 0–3 with Burton Albion winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (88 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (88 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 52% versus Burton Albion 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 41% | Burton Albion 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.38 xG and Burton Albion 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 0.809 / defence 0.810 | Burton Albion attack 1.000 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.112. Burton Albion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Lincoln's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 89 Lincoln games / 88 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 47% | Draw 29% | Burton Albion 24%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Burton Albion 4.17. Lincoln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lincoln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Lincoln 30% | Burton Albion 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 47% | Draw 29% | Burton Albion 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Lincoln 1.38 / Burton Albion 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 0.809 / def 0.810 | Burton Albion attack 1.000 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Burton Albion xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Burton Albion kick off?
Lincoln vs Burton Albion kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 25 April 2023 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Lincoln 0 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Lincoln vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Burton Albion part of?
Lincoln vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 47% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lincoln and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Burton Albion?
Record (3 meetings): Lincoln 1W | Draws 0 | Burton Albion 2W.
What form are Lincoln and Burton Albion in?
Lincoln (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lincoln's attack at 0.81x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Lincoln's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 89/88 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
47%
2.11
29%
3.50
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.28
0.90
Burton Albion xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
6%
16.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.7 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Lincoln and 0.90 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lincoln's recent record stands at 27W 29D 32L from 88 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 27W 21D 40L across 88 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lincoln on 1.25 PPG, Burton Albion on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lincoln have managed 13W 19D 12L from 44 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 9W 9D 26L across 44 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lincoln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lincoln are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.20 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 88 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 27W 29D 32L in their last 88 games (1.25 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 27W 21D 40L in their last 88 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Burton Albion away?
Lincoln's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.32 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lincoln and Burton Albion runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 22 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lincoln go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2022, when Burton Albion won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lincoln's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lincoln
0
Draws
5
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Burton Albion?
From 10 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 5, Burton Albion have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2026, when Lincoln 2-1 Burton Albion.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 52%, Burton Albion 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Lincoln) and 57% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Lincoln have failed to score in 34% of games; Burton Albion in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lincoln's recent matches and 54% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lincoln vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Lincoln's recent games and 57% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Burton Albion defy the odds to beat Lincoln 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Lincoln 0-1 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.38 xG and Burton Albion 0.90 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lincoln fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 0.81 / defence 0.81 against Burton Albion attack 1.00 / defence 1.29, drawn from 89/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 47% | Draw 29% | Burton Albion 24%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Burton Albion win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 41%, Burton Albion 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burton Albion's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.25 PPG, Burton Albion 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Burton Albion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.