🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Lincoln edge out Burton Albion 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lincoln beat Burton Albion 2-1 at LNER stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 2.06 xG and Burton Albion 0.91 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.29 / defence 0.98 against Burton Albion attack 0.85 / defence 1.16, drawn from 72/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lincoln 64% | Draw 20% | Burton Albion 16%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 46%, Burton Albion 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lincoln's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Burton Albion's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lincoln arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights