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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lincoln cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Bolton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lincoln beat Bolton 4-2 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.70 xG and Bolton 0.97 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Lincoln beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bolton outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.10 / defence 0.83 against Bolton attack 1.01 / defence 1.23, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lincoln 54% | Draw 25% | Bolton 21%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 42%, Bolton 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lincoln's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Bolton's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.48 PPG, Bolton 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bolton (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights