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Shock result as Stockport County defy the odds to beat Leyton Orient 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Leyton Orient 0-1 at Gaughan Group Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leyton Orient 1.24 xG and Stockport County 0.78 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Leyton Orient fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leyton Orient attack 1.01 / defence 0.64 against Stockport County attack 1.02 / defence 0.95, drawn from 73/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leyton Orient 47% | Draw 30% | Stockport County 23%, with Leyton Orient to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Stockport County win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leyton Orient 47%, Stockport County 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leyton Orient's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Stockport County's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights