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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Plymouth cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Leyton Orient.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth beat Leyton Orient 1-3 at Brisbane Road, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leyton Orient 1.22 xG and Plymouth 1.52 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Plymouth outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leyton Orient attack 0.98 / defence 1.04 against Plymouth attack 1.27 / defence 0.90, drawn from 76/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leyton Orient 30% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 44%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leyton Orient 57%, Plymouth 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leyton Orient's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Plymouth's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Leyton Orient 1.47 PPG, Plymouth 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights