Leyton Orient 2-1 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Leyton Orient face Peterborough.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Leyton Orient welcome Peterborough to Brisbane Road in League One (matchday 37). Kick-off is Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Leyton Orient have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Leyton Orient's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Peterborough stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Peterborough's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Leyton Orient) versus 1.10 (Peterborough). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Leyton Orient, 2 for Peterborough and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Dec 2025, ended Leyton Orient 0–1 Peterborough — a Peterborough win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Leyton Orient in-play and half-time data (last 81 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Peterborough in-play and half-time data (last 81 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leyton Orient 51% versus Peterborough 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leyton Orient 59% | Peterborough 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leyton Orient 1.30 xG and Peterborough 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leyton Orient attack 0.910 / defence 1.221 | Peterborough attack 0.997 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.164. Leyton Orient's defence rating of 1.221 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Peterborough's projected output up. Data: built from Leyton Orient's last 81 games and Peterborough's last 81.
Result probabilities: Leyton Orient 34% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 40%. Fair-value odds: Leyton Orient 2.90 | Draw 3.90 | Peterborough 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Peterborough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Leyton Orient's last 10 home games and Peterborough's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Leyton Orient 90% (last 10 home games) | Peterborough 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leyton Orient vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, matchday 37 | Venue: Brisbane Road • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leyton Orient 34% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Leyton Orient 1.30 / Peterborough 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Leyton Orient attack 0.910 / def 1.221 | Peterborough attack 0.997 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Leyton Orient xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Peterborough xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Leyton Orient vs Peterborough FAQs
What time does Leyton Orient vs Peterborough kick off?
Leyton Orient vs Peterborough kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Brisbane Road.
What was the final score in Leyton Orient vs Peterborough?
Leyton Orient 2 - 1 Peterborough.
Where is Leyton Orient vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Brisbane Road.
What competition is Leyton Orient vs Peterborough part of?
Leyton Orient vs Peterborough is a League One fixture (matchday 37) (England).
Who is favourite to win Leyton Orient vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Leyton Orient a 34% chance of winning, Peterborough a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leyton Orient vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Leyton Orient and Peterborough will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Leyton Orient vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Leyton Orient's attack rating (0.91) and Peterborough's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Leyton Orient's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Leyton Orient's last 81 games and Peterborough's last 81 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
34%
2.90
26%
3.90
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Leyton Orient xG
Total xG
2.72
1.42
Peterborough xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
8%
11.96
11%
9.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Leyton Orient vs Peterborough Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Leyton Orient vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Leyton Orient and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Leyton Orient and 1.42 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Leyton Orient vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Leyton Orient's recent record stands at 35W 14D 32L from 81 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Peterborough, meanwhile, have gone 27W 16D 38L across 81 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Leyton Orient on 1.47 PPG, Peterborough on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Leyton Orient have managed 18W 10D 11L from their last 39 home games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Peterborough's away record stands at 10W 6D 23L across their last 39 away games, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leyton Orient come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Leyton Orient are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.46 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough in 62%.
Last 81 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leyton Orient
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
Leyton Orient (Home) vs Peterborough (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Leyton Orient
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
❓ Leyton Orient vs Peterborough Form FAQs
What form are Leyton Orient and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Leyton Orient have gone 35W 14D 32L in their last 81 games (1.47 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 27W 16D 38L in their last 81 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leyton Orient at home or Peterborough away?
Leyton Orient's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leyton Orient at home: 1.64 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Leyton Orient's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Leyton Orient
3
Draws
2
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Leyton Orient vs Peterborough H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Leyton Orient and Peterborough?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Leyton Orient have won 1, Peterborough have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Leyton Orient and Peterborough last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Leyton Orient 2-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Leyton Orient and Peterborough?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Leyton Orient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leyton Orient 46%, Peterborough 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Leyton Orient) and 59% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Leyton Orient keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leyton Orient home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Leyton Orient vs Peterborough Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Leyton Orient and Peterborough matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Leyton Orient's recent matches and 62% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Leyton Orient and Peterborough matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Leyton Orient's recent games and 59% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leyton Orient and Peterborough matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Leyton Orient's recent matches and 67% of Peterborough's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Leyton Orient defy the odds to beat Peterborough 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leyton Orient beat Peterborough 2-1 at Brisbane Road, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leyton Orient 1.30 xG and Peterborough 1.42 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leyton Orient attack 0.91 / defence 1.22 against Peterborough attack 1.00 / defence 1.01, drawn from 81/81 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leyton Orient 34% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 40%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Leyton Orient win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leyton Orient 59%, Peterborough 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leyton Orient's trading profile (81 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Peterborough's trading profile (81 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leyton Orient 1.47 PPG, Peterborough 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leyton Orient win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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