Leicester vs Bradford – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bradford at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leicester vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Bradford travel to King Power Stadium to take on Leicester. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 November 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Leicester stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Leicester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leicester's home record at King Power Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at King Power Stadium this season.
Bradford — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bradford have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Leicester at 1.70 PPG versus Bradford's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Leicester in-play tendencies (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Bradford in-play tendencies (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leicester 70% versus Bradford 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 58% | Bradford 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 0.83 xG and Bradford 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 0.983 / defence 1.306 | Bradford attack 0.726 / defence 0.599. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.262. Bradford's defence strength of 0.599 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 13 Leicester games / 59 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leicester 24% | Draw 34% | Bradford 43%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 4.17 | Draw 2.94 | Bradford 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Leicester 60% | Bradford 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Bradford | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 24% | Draw 34% | Bradford 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Leicester 0.83 / Bradford 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 0.983 / def 1.306 | Bradford attack 0.726 / def 0.599 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Bradford (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Bradford xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Bradford kick off?
Leicester vs Bradford is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 November 2026 at King Power Stadium.
Where is Leicester vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Bradford part of?
Leicester vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 24% chance of winning, Bradford a 43% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Leicester and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Bradford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Leicester and Bradford in?
Leicester (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Bradford (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Leicester's attack at 0.98x the league average against Bradford's defence at 0.60x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Leicester's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
24%
4.22
34%
2.98
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.02
1.20
Bradford xG
4.22
24%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
7%
13.97
19%
5.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 15.8 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Leicester and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Leicester and 1.20 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Leicester come into this having played 59 games, going 17W 20D 22L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Leicester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bradford sit at 1.61 PPG from 59 outings (27W 14D 18L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bradford carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Leicester — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Leicester's home form reads 10W 8D 12L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Bradford have taken 1.27 points per game from 30 outings (10W 8D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Leicester are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.12 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bradford in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Bradford in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 17W 20D 22L in their last 59 games (1.20 PPG), while Bradford have gone 27W 14D 18L in their last 59 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Bradford away?
Leicester's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.27 PPG; Bradford away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Leicester or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leicester have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Bradford in 37%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 67%, Bradford 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Leicester) and 50% (Bradford). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bradford in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Bradford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Leicester's games and 53% of Bradford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Leicester vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Leicester's matches and 50% of Bradford's.
Do Leicester and Bradford tend to score early?
Leicester have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Bradford in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.