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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Exeter City and Stockport County share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at St James Park, Regular Season - 44, as Exeter City and Stockport County drew 3-3 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.08 xG and Stockport County 1.29 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Exeter City beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stockport County outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.80 / defence 1.12 against Stockport County attack 1.01 / defence 0.97, drawn from 89/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Exeter City 31% | Draw 28% | Stockport County 41%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 45%, Stockport County 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Exeter City's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Stockport County's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Exeter City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights