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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Exeter City run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Stevenage.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Exeter City beat Stevenage 3-0 at St James Park, Regular Season - 27, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.12 xG and Stevenage 0.75 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Exeter City beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.99 / defence 0.73 against Stevenage attack 0.94 / defence 0.83, drawn from 70/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Exeter City 44% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 25%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 42%, Stevenage 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Exeter City's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Stevenage's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.20 PPG, Stevenage 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Exeter City win broke the near-deadlock. Exeter City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights