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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Exeter City cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Shrewsbury.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Exeter City beat Shrewsbury 2-0 at St James Park, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.56 xG and Shrewsbury 1.51 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Shrewsbury landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 1.03 / defence 1.51 against Shrewsbury attack 0.88 / defence 1.20, drawn from 79/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Exeter City 38% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 36%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 47%, Shrewsbury 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Exeter City's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Shrewsbury's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.24 PPG, Shrewsbury 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Exeter City win broke the near-deadlock. Exeter City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights