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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Exeter City cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Plymouth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Exeter City beat Plymouth 2-0 at St James Park, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.73 xG and Plymouth 1.44 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Plymouth landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.97 / defence 1.08 against Plymouth attack 1.21 / defence 1.35, drawn from 59/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Exeter City 44% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 32%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 43%, Plymouth 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Exeter City's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.

Plymouth's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.14 PPG, Plymouth 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Exeter City win broke the near-deadlock. Exeter City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights