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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Exeter City and Northampton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Exeter City and Northampton finished level at 1-1 at St James Park, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.54 xG and Northampton 1.39 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 1.06 / defence 1.53 against Northampton attack 0.78 / defence 1.13, drawn from 77/79 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Exeter City 41% | Draw 25% | Northampton 34%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 48%, Northampton 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Exeter City's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Northampton's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.25 PPG, Northampton 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights