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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Exeter City and Crawley Town share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at St James Park, Regular Season - 23, as Exeter City and Crawley Town drew 4-4 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.66 xG and Crawley Town 0.85 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Exeter City beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crawley Town outscored their 0.85 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.95 / defence 0.97 against Crawley Town attack 0.76 / defence 1.38, drawn from 67/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Exeter City 57% | Draw 24% | Crawley Town 19%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 45%, Crawley Town 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Exeter City's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Crawley Town's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.36 PPG, Crawley Town 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Exeter City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights