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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Cardiff run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Exeter City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff beat Exeter City 0-4 at St James Park, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.12 xG and Cardiff 1.63 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Exeter City fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Cardiff outscored their 1.63 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.79 / defence 1.13 against Cardiff attack 1.24 / defence 1.00, drawn from 82/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Exeter City 26% | Draw 25% | Cardiff 49%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 44%, Cardiff 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Exeter City's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cardiff's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.20 PPG, Cardiff 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Exeter City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights