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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Exeter City cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bristol Rovers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Exeter City beat Bristol Rovers 3-1 at St James Park, Regular Season - 22, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.25 xG and Bristol Rovers 0.88 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Exeter City beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.83 / defence 0.96 against Bristol Rovers attack 0.79 / defence 1.19, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Exeter City 45% | Draw 29% | Bristol Rovers 26%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 44%, Bristol Rovers 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Exeter City's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Bristol Rovers's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.33 PPG, Bristol Rovers 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Exeter City win broke the near-deadlock. Exeter City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm. Bristol Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights