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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Bolton run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Exeter City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton beat Exeter City 1-5 at St James Park, Regular Season - 35, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 0.96 xG and Bolton 0.89 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Bolton outscored their 0.89 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.84 / defence 0.91 against Bolton attack 0.85 / defence 0.80, drawn from 78/80 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Exeter City 36% | Draw 32% | Bolton 32%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Bolton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 44%, Bolton 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Exeter City's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Bolton's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.24 PPG, Bolton 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Exeter City (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bolton (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights