🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Plymouth run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Doncaster.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth beat Doncaster 1-5 at Eco-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Doncaster 1.26 xG and Plymouth 1.22 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Plymouth outscored their 1.22 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Doncaster attack 0.84 / defence 1.20 against Plymouth attack 0.90 / defence 1.17, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Doncaster 37% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 35%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Plymouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Doncaster 53%, Plymouth 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Doncaster's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Plymouth's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Doncaster arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Plymouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Doncaster (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights