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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Wrexham defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wrexham beat Crawley Town 1-2 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.13 xG and Wrexham 1.10 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Wrexham outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.88 / defence 1.21 against Wrexham attack 0.77 / defence 1.01, drawn from 26/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 36% | Draw 29% | Wrexham 35%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Wrexham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 55%, Wrexham 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (74 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Wrexham's trading profile (74 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points. Wrexham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights