🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Crawley Town cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Stevenage.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crawley Town beat Stevenage 3-1 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 0.91 xG and Stevenage 1.11 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.86 / defence 1.28 against Stevenage attack 0.73 / defence 0.82, drawn from 28/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 29% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 40%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 57%, Stevenage 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (74 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Stevenage's trading profile (74 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.30 PPG, Stevenage 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.51 average — above their attacking norm. Stevenage (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights