Crawley Town 3-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Stevenage (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Crawley Town face Stevenage.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Broadfield Stadium plays host to Crawley Town versus Stevenage in League One, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Tuesday 11 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Crawley Town's overall League One record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Broadfield Stadium, Crawley Town have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Stevenage (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Stevenage away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Stevenage arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Stevenage hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2022, ended 1–3 with Stevenage winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Stevenage have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 53% versus Stevenage 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 57% | Stevenage 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 0.91 xG and Stevenage 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.856 / defence 1.280 | Stevenage attack 0.729 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.186. Data: 28 Crawley Town games / 74 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 29% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 40%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Stevenage 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 50% | Stevenage 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 29% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Crawley Town 0.91 / Stevenage 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.856 / def 1.280 | Stevenage attack 0.729 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Stevenage xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Stevenage kick off?
Crawley Town vs Stevenage kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 11 February 2025 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Stevenage?
Crawley Town 3 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Crawley Town vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Stevenage part of?
Crawley Town vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 29% chance of winning, Stevenage a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Crawley Town and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Stevenage?
Record (4 meetings): Crawley Town 0W | Draws 1 | Stevenage 3W.
What form are Crawley Town and Stevenage in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Stevenage (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Crawley Town's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.73x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 28/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
29%
3.40
31%
3.24
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.02
1.11
Stevenage xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
10%
10.28
16%
6.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 14.7 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.11 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 28W 12D 34L from 74 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 30W 21D 23L across 74 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.50 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 14W 6D 15L from 35 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 11W 11D 13L across 35 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crawley Town are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.14 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 28W 12D 34L in their last 74 games (1.30 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 30W 21D 23L in their last 74 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Stevenage away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.37 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Stevenage in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
1
Draws
4
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Stevenage?
From 6 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 1, Stevenage have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Stevenage 3-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Stevenage?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 57%, Stevenage 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Crawley Town) and 46% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 40%; Stevenage in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 40% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Crawley Town's recent games and 46% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Stevenage tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Stevenage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Stevenage 3-1 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 0.91 xG and Stevenage 1.11 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.86 / defence 1.28 against Stevenage attack 0.73 / defence 0.82, drawn from 28/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 29% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 40%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 57%, Stevenage 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (74 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Stevenage's trading profile (74 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.30 PPG, Stevenage 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.51 average — above their attacking norm. Stevenage (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.