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Poisson model rates Charlton at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 31 as Charlton welcome Stevenage to The Valley. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 February 2025 at 12:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all League One games this season, Charlton have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Charlton at The Valley this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Stevenage stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Stevenage's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charlton at 2.10 PPG versus Stevenage's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Charlton have won 0, Stevenage 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Stevenage winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Charlton trading profile (73 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Stevenage trading profile (73 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 64% versus Stevenage 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 49% | Stevenage 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 0.84 xG and Stevenage 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.883 / defence 0.738 | Stevenage attack 0.775 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.185. Stevenage's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Charlton's defence rating of 0.738 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 74 Charlton games / 73 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charlton 37% | Draw 36% | Stevenage 27%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | Stevenage 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.52. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.52 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Stevenage's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 1.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 20% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 28%. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 50% | Stevenage 20% BTTS from recent games.

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