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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Crawley Town cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Exeter City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crawley Town beat Exeter City 3-1 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.04 xG and Exeter City 1.36 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.89 / defence 1.39 against Exeter City attack 0.85 / defence 0.93, drawn from 43/89 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 28% | Draw 28% | Exeter City 44%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Exeter City 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Exeter City's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.22 PPG, Exeter City 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. Exeter City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights