🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Cambridge United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Crawley Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambridge United beat Crawley Town 0-2 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.79 xG and Cambridge United 1.14 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Crawley Town fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Cambridge United outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.01 / defence 1.18 against Cambridge United attack 0.83 / defence 1.38, drawn from 32/78 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 52% | Draw 24% | Cambridge United 24%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Cambridge United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Cambridge United 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cambridge United's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.29 PPG, Cambridge United 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambridge United win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights