Crawley Town 0-2 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Crawley Town face Cambridge United.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Crawley Town and Cambridge United meet at Broadfield Stadium in League One (matchday 34). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Crawley Town (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Crawley Town have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cambridge United's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Cambridge United have posted 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Crawley Town against 0.90 for Cambridge United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Cambridge United's last 10 away games) — Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Cambridge United in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Crawley Town, 0 for Cambridge United and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2024, ended Crawley Town 1–0 Cambridge United — a Crawley Town win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Crawley Town half-time and goal-timing data (last 78 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 31 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Cambridge United half-time and goal-timing data (last 78 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 55% versus Cambridge United 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 56% | Cambridge United 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.79 xG and Cambridge United 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.011 / defence 1.177 | Cambridge United attack 0.833 / defence 1.379. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.158. Cambridge United's defence rating of 1.379 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Crawley Town's projected output up. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 32 games and Cambridge United's last 78.
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 52% | Draw 24% | Cambridge United 24%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 1.91 | Draw 4.24 | Cambridge United 4.17. Crawley Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Cambridge United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 70% (last 10 home games) | Cambridge United 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, matchday 34 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 52% | Draw 24% | Cambridge United 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Crawley Town 1.79 / Cambridge United 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.011 / def 1.177 | Cambridge United attack 0.833 / def 1.379 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Cambridge United xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crawley Town vs Cambridge United FAQs
What time does Crawley Town vs Cambridge United kick off?
Crawley Town vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Cambridge United?
Crawley Town 0 - 2 Cambridge United.
Where is Crawley Town vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Cambridge United part of?
Crawley Town vs Cambridge United is a League One fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 52% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Crawley Town and Cambridge United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Crawley Town vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (1.01) and Cambridge United's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cambridge United's attack (0.83x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from Crawley Town's last 32 games and Cambridge United's last 78 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
52%
1.91
24%
4.24
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.92
1.14
Cambridge United xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
4%
24.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.9 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crawley Town vs Cambridge United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.14 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 78 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 29W 14D 35L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Cambridge United's form line: 18W 20D 40L from 78 games, 0.95 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Crawley Town against 0.95 for Cambridge United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.39 PPG from their last 38 home games (15W 8D 15L).
On the road, Cambridge United have gone 4W 9D 25L from their last 38 away games — 0.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Crawley Town are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 0.91 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 78 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Cambridge United
Current Season
Crawley Town (Home) vs Cambridge United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crawley Town
Current Season
Cambridge United
Current Season
❓ Crawley Town vs Cambridge United Form FAQs
What form are Crawley Town and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 29W 14D 35L in their last 78 games (1.29 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 18W 20D 40L in their last 78 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Cambridge United away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.39 PPG; Cambridge United away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Crawley Town and Cambridge United, the earliest from August 2024. They cover more than one competition — League One, League Two. The most recent was on 10 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cambridge United have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambridge United won Crawley Town 0-3 Cambridge United on 10 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
0
Draws
3
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Crawley Town vs Cambridge United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Cambridge United?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Crawley Town have won 1, Cambridge United have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Cambridge United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 February 2026: Crawley Town 0-3 Cambridge United.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Cambridge United?
Cambridge United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 60%, Cambridge United 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Crawley Town) and 53% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Cambridge United in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crawley Town vs Cambridge United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crawley Town and Cambridge United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 40% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Crawley Town and Cambridge United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Crawley Town's recent games and 53% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Cambridge United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 71% of Cambridge United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambridge United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambridge United beat Crawley Town 0-2 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.79 xG and Cambridge United 1.14 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Crawley Town fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Cambridge United outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.01 / defence 1.18 against Cambridge United attack 0.83 / defence 1.38, drawn from 32/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 52% | Draw 24% | Cambridge United 24%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Cambridge United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Cambridge United 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cambridge United's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.29 PPG, Cambridge United 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambridge United win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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