🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Leyton Orient at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leyton Orient vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Charlton make the trip to Gaughan Group Stadium to face Leyton Orient in League One, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 March 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Leyton Orient have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home at Gaughan Group Stadium, Leyton Orient have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gaughan Group Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Charlton (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 League One outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, Charlton have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Leyton Orient, 2.00 for Charlton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Leyton Orient 1W, Charlton 2W, 0D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Charlton winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Leyton Orient goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leyton Orient 40% versus Charlton 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leyton Orient 49% | Charlton 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Leyton Orient 1.47 xG and Charlton 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leyton Orient attack 1.117 / defence 0.723 | Charlton attack 1.096 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.158. Leyton Orient's defence rating of 0.723 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 79 Leyton Orient games / 78 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Leyton Orient 50% | Draw 27% | Charlton 23%. Fair-value odds: Leyton Orient 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Charlton 4.35. Leyton Orient hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Leyton Orient at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Leyton Orient if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Leyton Orient 10% | Charlton 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights