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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Crawley Town and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crawley Town and Burton Albion finished level at 1-1 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.13 xG and Burton Albion 1.09 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.90 / defence 1.24 against Burton Albion attack 0.77 / defence 1.01, drawn from 23/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 36% | Draw 30% | Burton Albion 34%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 59%, Burton Albion 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Crawley Town's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Burton Albion's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Crawley Town arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights