Cheltenham 1-2 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lincoln (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cheltenham face Lincoln.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 45 as Cheltenham welcome Lincoln to Completely-Suzuki Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Cheltenham have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cheltenham's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Completely-Suzuki Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lincoln — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in League One this season, Lincoln have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Lincoln's 2.30 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Cheltenham's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cheltenham register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Lincoln in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Lincoln have the better historical record — 3 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Cheltenham.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Lincoln winning.
It is worth noting that Lincoln have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Cheltenham in-play tendencies (89 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Lincoln in-play tendencies (89 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 42% versus Lincoln 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cheltenham 45% | Lincoln 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 0.82 xG and Lincoln 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.843 / defence 1.282 | Lincoln attack 1.128 / defence 0.741. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.191. Lincoln's defence strength of 0.741 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 89 Cheltenham games / 90 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 18% | Draw 24% | Lincoln 59%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 5.56 | Draw 4.17 | Lincoln 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Lincoln (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Cheltenham 70% | Lincoln 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: Completely-Suzuki Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 18% | Draw 24% | Lincoln 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 46% | xG Cheltenham 0.82 / Lincoln 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.843 / def 1.282 | Lincoln attack 1.128 / def 0.741 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Lincoln xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cheltenham vs Lincoln kick off?
Cheltenham vs Lincoln kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Lincoln?
Cheltenham 1 - 2 Lincoln.
Where is Cheltenham vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Lincoln part of?
Cheltenham vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 18% chance of winning, Lincoln a 59% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cheltenham and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Cheltenham vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Lincoln?
Record (5 meetings): Cheltenham 0W | Draws 2 | Lincoln 3W.
What form are Cheltenham and Lincoln in?
Cheltenham (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Lincoln (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cheltenham's attack rating (0.84) and Lincoln's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lincoln's attack versus Cheltenham's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 89/90 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-2 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
18%
5.70
24%
4.24
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.54
1.72
Lincoln xG
5.70
18%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
3%
31.90
26%
3.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 13.6 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Cheltenham and 1.72 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Lincoln?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 89 outings, Cheltenham have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 25W 20D 44L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Lincoln's form line: 33W 33D 23L from 89 games, 1.48 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Lincoln are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cheltenham.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cheltenham have posted 1.23 PPG from 44 outings (14W 12D 18L).
On the road, Lincoln have gone 16W 12D 16L from 44 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cheltenham are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.22 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Lincoln in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 89 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Current Season
Lincoln
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cheltenham and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 25W 20D 44L in their last 89 games (1.07 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 33W 33D 23L in their last 89 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Lincoln away?
Lincoln's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.23 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Cheltenham or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cheltenham have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Lincoln in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Lincoln have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2022, when Lincoln won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cheltenham's record when hosting Lincoln specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Cheltenham
2
Draws
4
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Lincoln?
From 6 meetings on record, Cheltenham have won 0, Lincoln have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Cheltenham 1-2 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Lincoln?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 46%, Lincoln 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cheltenham) and 36% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Cheltenham keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Lincoln in 34%; Cheltenham have failed to score in 34% of games; Lincoln in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cheltenham play Lincoln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 43% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cheltenham vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cheltenham's recent games and 36% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Lincoln tend to score early?
Cheltenham have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lincoln edge out Cheltenham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln beat Cheltenham 1-2 at Completely-Suzuki Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 0.82 xG and Lincoln 1.72 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.84 / defence 1.28 against Lincoln attack 1.13 / defence 0.74, drawn from 89/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 18% | Draw 24% | Lincoln 59%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 45%, Lincoln 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Lincoln's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lincoln arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.