Cambridge United 0-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Derby (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cambridge United face Derby.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cambridge United host Derby at Cledara Abbey Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 45. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Cambridge United have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Cledara Abbey Stadium, Cambridge United have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Derby — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Derby's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Derby — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Cambridge United have won 0, Derby 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Cambridge United trading profile (89 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Derby trading profile (89 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 42% versus Derby 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 43% | Derby 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 0.78 xG and Derby 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 0.812 / defence 0.951 | Derby attack 1.098 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.191. Derby's defence strength of 0.731 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 89 Cambridge United games / 90 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambridge United 23% | Draw 30% | Derby 47%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 4.35 | Draw 3.33 | Derby 2.13. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cambridge United 50% | Derby 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambridge United vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: Cledara Abbey Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambridge United 23% | Draw 30% | Derby 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG Cambridge United 0.78 / Derby 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Cambridge United attack 0.812 / def 0.951 | Derby attack 1.098 / def 0.731 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Derby (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Cambridge United xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Derby xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambridge United vs Derby kick off?
Cambridge United vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Cledara Abbey Stadium.
What was the final score in Cambridge United vs Derby?
Cambridge United 0 - 1 Derby.
Where is Cambridge United vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Cledara Abbey Stadium.
What competition is Cambridge United vs Derby part of?
Cambridge United vs Derby is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cambridge United vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Cambridge United a 23% chance of winning, Derby a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambridge United vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Cambridge United and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Cambridge United vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Derby?
Record (3 meetings): Cambridge United 0W | Draws 1 | Derby 2W.
What form are Cambridge United and Derby in?
Cambridge United (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Derby (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cambridge United's attack rating (0.81) and Derby's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Cambridge United's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 89/90 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
23%
4.31
30%
3.39
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Cambridge United xG
Total xG
2.02
1.24
Derby xG
4.31
23%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
7%
14.92
22%
4.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 16.5 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cambridge United and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Cambridge United and 1.24 for Derby, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambridge United vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cambridge United's recent record stands at 25W 17D 47L from 89 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 46W 21D 22L across 89 games — 1.79 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derby by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cambridge United heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cambridge United have managed 17W 10D 17L from 44 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 20W 11D 13L across 44 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambridge United are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.58 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 89 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambridge United
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambridge United and Derby in coming into this match?
Cambridge United have gone 25W 17D 47L in their last 89 games (1.03 PPG), while Derby have gone 46W 21D 22L in their last 89 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambridge United at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambridge United at home: 1.39 PPG; Derby away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Cambridge United or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambridge United have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Derby in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cambridge United's record when hosting Derby specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cambridge United
1
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Derby?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambridge United have won 0, Derby have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambridge United and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Cambridge United 0-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Cambridge United and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambridge United 43%, Derby 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Cambridge United) and 48% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Cambridge United keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Derby in 39%; Cambridge United have failed to score in 34% of games; Derby in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambridge United home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambridge United play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Cambridge United's recent matches and 46% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambridge United vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Cambridge United's recent games and 48% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambridge United and Derby tend to score early?
Cambridge United have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Derby in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Cambridge United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Cambridge United 0-1 at Cledara Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 0.78 xG and Derby 1.24 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.81 / defence 0.95 against Derby attack 1.10 / defence 0.73, drawn from 89/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 23% | Draw 30% | Derby 47%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 43%, Derby 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambridge United's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derby's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cambridge United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.02 scoring average — below par going forward. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.