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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Charlton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Stevenage.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charlton beat Stevenage 2-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 0.84 xG and Stevenage 0.68 xG, a combined 1.52. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Charlton beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.88 / defence 0.74 against Stevenage attack 0.78 / defence 0.73, drawn from 74/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 37% | Draw 36% | Stevenage 27%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 49%, Stevenage 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (73 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Stevenage's trading profile (73 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charlton 1.29 PPG, Stevenage 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights