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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Shrewsbury 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charlton beat Shrewsbury 1-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 28, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.48 xG and Shrewsbury 0.87 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shrewsbury landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.88 / defence 0.82 against Shrewsbury attack 0.90 / defence 1.34, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 51% | Draw 27% | Shrewsbury 22%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 49%, Shrewsbury 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Shrewsbury's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charlton 1.27 PPG, Shrewsbury 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights