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Poisson model favours Charlton (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Charlton face Shrewsbury.

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Analysis & Preview

A League One encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Shrewsbury travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 January 2025, 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Charlton — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all League One games this season, Shrewsbury have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Shrewsbury, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in League One this season, Shrewsbury have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Charlton are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Charlton register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Shrewsbury in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Charlton: 4 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for Shrewsbury, with 2 draws across those contests.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Charlton winning.

The historical record gives Charlton a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Charlton in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Shrewsbury in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 65% versus Shrewsbury 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 49% | Shrewsbury 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.48 xG and Shrewsbury 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.880 / defence 0.824 | Shrewsbury attack 0.898 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.179. Shrewsbury bring a strong defensive rating of 1.336 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 Charlton games / 71 Shrewsbury games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charlton 51% | Draw 27% | Shrewsbury 22%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Shrewsbury 4.55. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Charlton 70% | Shrewsbury 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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