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Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Northampton 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charlton beat Northampton 2-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.52 xG and Northampton 0.91 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.23 / defence 0.76 against Northampton attack 1.07 / defence 0.97, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 51% | Draw 26% | Northampton 22%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 50%, Northampton 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Northampton's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charlton 1.47 PPG, Northampton 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights