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Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Leyton Orient 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charlton beat Leyton Orient 1-0 at Wembley Stadium, Promotion Play-offs - Final, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.65 xG and Leyton Orient 1.31 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Leyton Orient landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.27 / defence 0.79 against Leyton Orient attack 1.37 / defence 0.99, drawn from 92/92 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 45% | Draw 25% | Leyton Orient 30%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 51%, Leyton Orient 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (94 games, 47 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Leyton Orient's trading profile (94 games, 47 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charlton 1.51 PPG, Leyton Orient 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights