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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Charlton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bristol Rovers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charlton beat Bristol Rovers 2-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.41 xG and Bristol Rovers 0.61 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.84 / defence 0.77 against Bristol Rovers attack 0.68 / defence 1.30, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 56% | Draw 28% | Bristol Rovers 16%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 49%, Bristol Rovers 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Bristol Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charlton 1.29 PPG, Bristol Rovers 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Bristol Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights