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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Cardiff run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Rotherham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff beat Rotherham 3-0 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.19 xG and Rotherham 1.02 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cardiff beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rotherham landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against Rotherham attack 0.85 / defence 0.94, drawn from 2/48 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Cardiff 39% | Draw 30% | Rotherham 31%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 44%, Rotherham 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cardiff's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Rotherham's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.00 PPG, Rotherham 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Rotherham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights