🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Cardiff edge out Reading 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff beat Reading 2-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.67 xG and Reading 1.45 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.20 / defence 1.22 against Reading attack 1.06 / defence 1.04, drawn from 11/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cardiff 43% | Draw 24% | Reading 33%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 44%, Reading 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cardiff's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Reading's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.18 PPG, Reading 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights