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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Cardiff run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Plymouth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff beat Plymouth 4-0 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 2.03 xG and Plymouth 0.94 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Cardiff beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Plymouth landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.14 / defence 1.01 against Plymouth attack 0.89 / defence 1.34, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cardiff 63% | Draw 21% | Plymouth 17%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 43%, Plymouth 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cardiff's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Plymouth's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.12 PPG, Plymouth 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Plymouth (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights