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Shock result as Burton Albion defy the odds to beat Cardiff 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burton Albion beat Cardiff 0-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.59 xG and Burton Albion 1.09 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cardiff fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.18 / defence 1.10 against Burton Albion attack 0.90 / defence 0.99, drawn from 9/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cardiff 49% | Draw 25% | Burton Albion 26%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Burton Albion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 44%, Burton Albion 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cardiff's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Burton Albion's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.19 PPG, Burton Albion 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Burton Albion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights