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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Cardiff run riot with a 4-1 hammering of AFC Wimbledon.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff beat AFC Wimbledon 4-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 2.28 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.17 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Cardiff beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.34 / defence 0.98 against AFC Wimbledon attack 1.03 / defence 1.23, drawn from 31/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cardiff 62% | Draw 19% | AFC Wimbledon 18%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 49%, AFC Wimbledon 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cardiff's trading profile (77 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (77 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.43 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights