Cambridge United vs Shrewsbury – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Cambridge United run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Shrewsbury.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambridge United beat Shrewsbury 4-1 at Cledara Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.46 xG and Shrewsbury 1.05 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Cambridge United beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against Shrewsbury attack 0.95 / defence 1.28, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 47% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 27%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 36%, Shrewsbury 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambridge United's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.

Shrewsbury's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cambridge United 0.97 PPG, Shrewsbury 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambridge United win broke the near-deadlock. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights