Cambridge United vs Shrewsbury – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cambridge United's attack at 0.87x the league average against Shrewsbury's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shrewsbury's attack (0.95x) against Cambridge United's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambridge United Win
47%
2.14
26%
3.81
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Cambridge United xG
Total xG
2.51
1.05
Shrewsbury xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
6%
15.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cambridge United and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Cambridge United and 1.05 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambridge United vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.