Cambridge United vs Bolton – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cambridge United and Bolton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambridge United and Bolton finished level at 1-1 at Cledara Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.51 xG and Bolton 1.41 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.87 / defence 1.03 against Bolton attack 1.23 / defence 1.30, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 40% | Draw 25% | Bolton 36%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 36%, Bolton 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambridge United's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.

Bolton's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights