Cambridge United vs Bolton – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cambridge United's attack at 0.87x the league average against Bolton's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bolton's attack (1.23x) against Cambridge United's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambridge United Win
40%
2.51
25%
4.06
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Cambridge United xG
Total xG
2.92
1.41
Bolton xG
2.51
40%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
10%
10.29
8%
12.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Cambridge United and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Cambridge United and 1.41 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambridge United vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.