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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Burton Albion and Wigan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 38, as Burton Albion and Wigan drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 0.99 xG and Wigan 0.95 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 1.08 / defence 1.10 against Wigan attack 0.74 / defence 0.71, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 35% | Draw 32% | Wigan 33%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 49%, Wigan 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burton Albion's trading profile (90 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Wigan's trading profile (90 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.02 PPG, Wigan 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights