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Dominant Burton Albion run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Stockport County.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burton Albion beat Stockport County 3-0 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.04 xG and Stockport County 1.23 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Burton Albion beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stockport County landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.92 / defence 1.13 against Stockport County attack 0.95 / defence 0.79, drawn from 78/78 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 31% | Draw 28% | Stockport County 41%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Burton Albion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 54%, Stockport County 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burton Albion's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Stockport County's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Burton Albion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights