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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Stevenage defy the odds to beat Burton Albion 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stevenage beat Burton Albion 0-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.71 xG and Stevenage 1.02 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Burton Albion fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 1.03 / defence 1.04 against Stevenage attack 0.85 / defence 1.17, drawn from 81/79 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 53% | Draw 24% | Stevenage 23%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Stevenage win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 53%, Stevenage 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burton Albion's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Stevenage's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.09 PPG, Stevenage 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights