Burton Albion 0-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Burton Albion face Stevenage.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burton Albion and Stevenage meet at Pirelli Stadium in League One (matchday 36). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Burton Albion's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Burton Albion have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Burton Albion are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Stevenage have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stevenage's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Burton Albion, 1.40 for Stevenage — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Burton Albion, 1 for Stevenage and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2025, ended Burton Albion 2–2 Stevenage — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Burton Albion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 79 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 79 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 49% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 49% versus Stevenage 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 53% | Stevenage 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.71 xG and Stevenage 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 1.033 / defence 1.044 | Stevenage attack 0.851 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.152. Data: built from Burton Albion's last 81 games and Stevenage's last 79.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 53% | Draw 24% | Stevenage 23%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 1.87 | Draw 4.17 | Stevenage 4.42. Burton Albion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Burton Albion as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Burton Albion's last 10 home games and Stevenage's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Burton Albion 40% (last 10 home games) | Stevenage 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, matchday 36 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 53% | Draw 24% | Stevenage 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Burton Albion 1.71 / Stevenage 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 1.033 / def 1.044 | Stevenage attack 0.851 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Stevenage xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burton Albion vs Stevenage FAQs
What time does Burton Albion vs Stevenage kick off?
Burton Albion vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Burton Albion 0 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Burton Albion vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Stevenage part of?
Burton Albion vs Stevenage is a League One fixture (matchday 36) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 53% chance of winning, Stevenage a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Burton Albion and Stevenage will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Burton Albion vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Burton Albion's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.85x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Burton Albion's last 81 games and Stevenage's last 79 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
53%
1.87
24%
4.17
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.73
1.02
Stevenage xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
4%
24.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.4 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burton Albion vs Stevenage Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.02 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burton Albion come into this having played 79 games, going 21W 23D 35L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D.
On the other side, Stevenage sit at 1.37 PPG from 79 outings (29W 21D 29L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Burton Albion against 1.37 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Burton Albion's home form reads 13W 9D 17L across their last 39 home games, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Stevenage have taken 1.10 points per game from their last 39 away games (11W 10D 18L).
Attack vs Defence
Burton Albion are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.00 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 79 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
Burton Albion (Home) vs Stevenage (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burton Albion
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Burton Albion vs Stevenage Form FAQs
What form are Burton Albion and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 21W 23D 35L in their last 79 games (1.09 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 29W 21D 29L in their last 79 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Stevenage away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.23 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Stevenage in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Burton Albion and Stevenage, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 0W 2D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Burton Albion
3
Draws
2
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Burton Albion vs Stevenage H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Stevenage?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Burton Albion have won 2, Stevenage have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Stevenage last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Burton Albion 1-1 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 49% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 49%, Stevenage 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Burton Albion) and 38% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 33%; Burton Albion have failed to score in 36% of games; Stevenage in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burton Albion vs Stevenage Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burton Albion and Stevenage matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 41% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burton Albion and Stevenage matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Burton Albion's recent games and 38% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Stevenage matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 49% of Stevenage's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stevenage defy the odds to beat Burton Albion 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Burton Albion 0-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.71 xG and Stevenage 1.02 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Burton Albion fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 1.03 / defence 1.04 against Stevenage attack 0.85 / defence 1.17, drawn from 81/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 53% | Draw 24% | Stevenage 23%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Stevenage win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 53%, Stevenage 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stevenage's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.09 PPG, Stevenage 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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